Por: José Francisco Peña Guaba

Lo más difícil es aconsejar a personas que se creen exitosas en política, aunque sólo hayan ganado una sola vez. Lo expreso así porque una victoria no es válida para hablar de un “buen average”, máxime cuando la misma se debe más a errores del contrario que a una buena estrategia propia.

Habría que ser muy novato en estas lides para creer que el PLD se llevó a sí mismo al poder: a ese partido lo llevó el gobierno de Joaquín Balaguer, quien, desde el Palacio, dio el dinero y los votos para impedir la llegada del binomio Peña Gómez-Álvarez Bogaert al poder. Por eso el doctor Leonel Fernández, siendo Presidente de la República, me expresó una vez en el Palacio Nacional: “Estamos aquí por un golpe de suerte”… porque sin la maquinaria balaguerista no hubiésemos llegado al gobierno en el 1996.

Igual es ahora. ¿Ganó realmente el PRM? No es así, perdió el PLD que se dividió, porque todas las encuestas realizadas confirmaban que al PLD unido alrededor de la candidatura Presidencial de Leonel era imbatible. Por eso es válida la frase que reza “el que no sabe por qué gano, no sabrá por qué perdió”, pues lo primero que tiene que tener un verdadero estratega es objetividad y humildad para analizar con razonabilidad los escenarios políticos electorales.

La percepción se construye sobre realidades concretas. Si hubiese habido unidad peledeísta, ¿cuál hubiese sido la opinión de la mayoría de los electores? ¡Que ganaría el PLD! Simple, porque en el imaginario popular sólo la desunión rompía el carácter de invencibilidad de la tolda morada y creaba la posibilidad real de su derrota, lo que ocurrió.

Es cierto que la sociedad civil y las redes sociales son necesarias hoy en día, pero todavía el peso específico de los votos reales lo tienen los partidos políticos, porque existen circunscripciones electorales donde los ciudadanos de manera espontánea salen a votar, pero en los barrios populares y las zonas rurales son las maquinarias de campaña las que garantizan la participación de los electores. Las redes influyen, pero no determinan vencedores; éstos al igual que la sociedad civil, no tienen estructuras ni equipos operativos electorales, ni mucho menos representación en las mesas de votación.

La sociedad civil reputa un proyecto político con la inserción en la campaña de figuras y personalidades que fortalecen la imagen del candidato, pero los votos que tienen la misma están dispersos y, honestamente, no se pueden cuantificar por lo que solamente los apoyos dirigenciales y de partidos tienen valor numérico real.

Es una estrategia equivocada por parte del gobierno sobredimensionar el papel de las redes sociales, de la sociedad civil y de la lucha y/o combate contra la corrupción, como generador de réditos electorales, mientras descuidan a su propia base de apoyo, que es la estructura dirigencial y de base del PRM. Paso a explicar en 10 puntos, que como “decálogo del éxito” deberían evaluar, tomando correctivo a las que entendemos erradas estrategias electorales del gobierno:

1-        Está más que comprobado que en este país se vota por realizaciones sociales o por infraestructuras. Los ejemplos sobran. En el 1986 el reformismo volvió al poder con el lema “Esto lo hizo Balaguer”, mostrando todas las obras físicas construidas en los llamados doce años. Así pasó nueva vez en el 2004, por la buena gestión realizada por Leonel en su primer periodo, que le permitió ganar nueva vez.

2-        Resulta moral e institucionalmente correcto y necesario el combate a la corrupción, pero hay dos ejemplos demostrativos de que no se obtienen réditos electores con dicha acción. Dos ejemplos, el del cuatrienio de 1986-1990, con el famoso “Juicio del Siglo”, donde se encarcelaron varios funcionarios de los gobiernos perredeístas, incluyendo al ex presidente Salvador Jorge Blanco, pero después de tres años de persecuciones, Balaguer solo sacó un 35% de votos en las elecciones de 1990 (se quedó en el poder por la división de la oposición, que obtuvo un 65% en votación, y porque no existía el sistema de doble vuelta electoral). Asimismo, la reelección de Hipólito (que llevó a la cárcel a varios connotados dirigentes del PLD en su gestión), más en las elecciones del 2004 apenas obtuvo un 33% de los votos.

3-        Todo partido que quiere tener éxito requiere buscarle espacio a la dirigencia clave de su partido. Esos son los armadores de su triunfo, esos son los artesanos del poder, no pueden estar afuera bajo ninguna circunstancia, porque esos son los responsables de la búsqueda de los votos en los recintos y mesas electorales. La lógica nos hace entender que no menos de 50 mil cuadros o dirigentes políticos deben estar en el tren gubernamental, partiendo de que se tenga aunque sea dos dirigentes por cada colegio y recinto electoral. Esto, amén a las designaciones comunes realizadas a simples militantes.

4-        El voto más seguro con que cuenta un partido de gobierno son los beneficiarios de los programas asistenciales. Se han realizado estudios y hay una fidelidad electoral para el gobierno de turno, superior a un 75% de los favorecidos de esa protección social. Deben fortalecer esos programas e integrar parte de las bases perremeístas y aliados, que clasifiquen por estar en los niveles de pobreza que como condición se requiere

5-        Lo más importante para un gobierno es contar con los liderazgos de base, de las juntas de vecinos, de las organizaciones comunitarias, las acciones sociales del gobierno tienen que estar dirigidas en una gran parte a buscarle solución a los pequeños problemas de las comunidades a través de ellos.

6-        Si hay un voto real al que debe dársele seguimiento es al voto de las distintas feligresías cristianas. Los gobiernos tienen que apoyarlos porque ese liderazgo goza de simpatía y fidelidad de quien los apoya, es una realidad electoral que nadie puede soslayar por el peso electoral que tienen hoy.

7-        Mantener la estabilidad macroeconómica es fundamental. Control del endeudamiento externo, de la tasa cambiaria, de los gastos públicos; mejorar la creación de empleos y mantener una baja inflación, porque no hay cosa que electoralmente haga más daño que una política económica errática, que tiene el potencial de convertir el panorama electoral de un partido de gobierno de gravoso a catastrófico.

8-        Mantener a raya la delincuencia organizada, el micro tráfico, la indisciplina social y el sicariato porque la inseguridad ciudadana crea temor y afecta la imagen en el exterior del país y del gobierno internamente. Una gestión tiene, sin excesos, que actuar con mano dura para evitar alteración del orden público.

9-        Si algo se mostró exitoso en el modelo peledeísta, que le permitió ganar 7 elecciones consecutivas (en los niveles presidenciales, congresuales y municipales), es la desconcentración de las instituciones públicas. Si se le otorgan las instituciones a incumbentes solo de la región metropolitana y Santiago, se dejan 29 provincias huérfanas de las acciones estatales. Lo conveniente es que proporcionalmente al peso electoral de la provincia se le otorguen, inteligentemente, a dirigentes locales reconocidos, la dirección de instituciones nacionales. Así les llegan empleos, ayudas y padrinazgo a todos los municipios del país y los cuadros políticos locales son tomados en cuenta, con empleos de mayor calidad. Esto es efectivísimo para cualquier gobierno.

10-      Aunque lo mencione de último, es la más fundamental pata de la mesa del poder, las alianzas electorales, imprescindibles para tener oportunidad para ganar. Dos razones así lo hacen entender: primero el sistema de doble vuelta, que obliga a obtener el 50% más uno de los votos y el sistema pluripartidista. En nuestro país existen 27 partidos reconocidos por la JCE, y le es necesario al gobierno tener la mayor cantidad de estos respaldándoles. Para afirmar con datos reales lo que aquí expreso, mientras la alianza presidencial del PRM a nivel Presidencial con siete partidos obtuvo un 52% en el nivel municipal, en el de Senadores, en el que participaron en algunos casos hasta 17 partidos aliados, hubo candidaturas electas que rozaron hasta un 70% de los votos.

Cómo verán, el gobierno debe buscar el apoyo de la mayor cantidad de franquicias electorales si quiere tener posibilidad de competir con éxito en las elecciones venideras. La mayor torpeza que comete hoy el gobierno es mantener tirantez con el sistema de partidos, porque eso le puede traer dificultad para las alianzas.

En estos 10 puntos reduzco las acciones básicas que en términos estratégicos son fundamentales entender, y que son parte de la experiencia acumulada de ocho procesos electorales en línea, en donde hemos acertado desde el 2004 a la fecha. No son hijas de pareceres personales ni de la improvisación, sino de vivencias y de resultados electorales ganadores.

Aunque no lo incluí en los diez puntos el gobierno comete su peor error en el trato dado a la Fuerza del Pueblo, ello así porque esa organización fue la que le permitió el triunfo al PRM. Dos acciones anti políticas lo están alejando de una buena relación con el PRM y los puede acercar al PLD; una, negarle el derecho de partido mayoritario a la FP, con lo cual le negaron los recursos económicos necesarios que en su nivel se merecen, y el otro son las cancelaciones masivas de leonelistas que trabajaron contra el PLD-Danilo. Si esto se mantiene construirán, a efectos de un golpeo absurdo, una unidad monolítica de la oposición para las elecciones venideras, porque, por más diferencias políticas que existan, cuando en los pueblos los leonelistas se sientan más identificados en términos de alianza con el PLD que con el PRM, el gobierno estará regalando las elecciones desde ahora.

Este es un país qué hay que entenderlo. Lo veo hoy en mi propio partido, donde toda nuestra maquinaria trabajo en contra al PLD, los que quedaban como servidores públicos, absolutamente todos fueron cancelados y desvinculados por el gobierno del cambio. Así mismo está pasando con los pueblistas a nivel nacional: los que nos quedaban son cuadros políticos que hoy, ¿a quién ustedes creen que se inclinarían en una alianza, con el gobierno o con las otras fuerzas de la oposición?

He aprendido en más de 40 años que la política es matemática y es suma, sobre todo en este sistema de doble vuelta, donde es tan importante el que tiene 40% como el que tiene un 10%, porque ese otro tiene los votos del triunfo, aunque soy de los que creo que van a clasificar para las elecciones venideras el gobierno y Leonel Fernández, por razones que expondré en otro artículo. Si se diera la  posibilidad de que, precisamente por las afectaciones que el propio gobierno les hace a la  Fuerza del Pueblo, clasificara el PLD en una segunda vuelta electoral, ¿por quién cree usted, lector, que se inclinarían los cuadros políticos del leonelismo y sus aliados independiente, al interés de su propio líder, a favor de quienes, aunque con graves diferencias, no los cancelaron de sus empleos o a favor de quienes los desvincularon del gobierno del cambio, pese de haberlos ayudado a ganar, en un país donde los estómagos mandan? Contéstese  usted mismo.

2.145 comentarios en «Una errática estrategia gubernamental»
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