Es uno de los momentos menos publicitados, pero de los más simbólicos e importantes de toda transición presidencial en EE.UU.
Desde hace casi seis décadas, durante la toma de posesión del nuevo mandatario el 20 de enero, eclipsados por la fanfarria y los ornamentos, dos militares con uniformes de gala esperan detrás de unos pilares el momento de la juramentación.
Uno de ellos, que generalmente ha acompañado al presidente saliente en la mayoría de sus viajes, lleva consigo un pesado maletín negro que, cuando el reloj marque el mediodía, entregará al otro oficial, que se encargará desde entonces de cargarlo para el nuevo comandante en jefe.
Se trata de la llamada «caja negra» o «maletín nuclear«, una valija reforzada con metal que acompaña a todas partes al presidente de EE.UU. porel caso de que necesitara lanzar un ataque atómico estando lejos de la Casa Blanca.
Desde que se comenzó a utilizar durante el gobierno de John F. Kennedy, el traspaso de la maleta ha sido una parte fundamental, aunque discreta de las ceremonias de toma de posesión en EE.UU.
Sin embargo, este año el simple proceso de pasar una maleta de una manos a otras implica un desafío logístico sin precedentes: por primera vez, en más de un siglo, el mandatario saliente no estará en la toma de posesión de su sucesor.
Trump es el primer presidente en más de un siglo y medio que elude la ceremonia de toma de posesión de su sucesor.
Y como presidente debe tener a mano el maletín nuclear hasta el mediodía. Momento en el que su plan es estar a 1.500 km de distancia, en el sur de Florida. Muy lejos de Biden, que debe tenerlo en cuanto sea presidente.
Entonces, ¿cómo se realizará la transferencia de los códigos nucleares si los presidentes estarán a cientos de kilómetros de distancia?
Una solución insólita
Ante la inquietud de cómo se realizará el traspaso de los códigos nucleares, el Pentágono respondió recientemente que tenía un plan para el «Día de la Inauguración», pero declinó ofrecer detalles.
Sin embargo, varios expertos y académicos han explicados cuáles son los posibles escenarios que se han debido barajar ante una situación tan insólita en la historia de Estados Unidos.
Durante un evento del Centro para el Control de Armas y la No Proliferación, Stephen Schwartz, experto en el maletín nuclear del Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, explicó que, contrario a lo que muchos piensan, en realidad, existen al menos tres maletas de este tipo.
Una es la que acompaña al presidente, pero hay otra lista para ser entregada en caso de emergencia al vicepresidente o al «sobreviviente designado» (el miembro del gabinete que se designa para asumir el gobierno si por algún motivo mueren todos los líderes en la línea de sucesión presidencial).
Schwartz consideró que el Pentágono podría utilizar uno de estos maletines –o preparar uno nuevo– para entregarlo a Biden y activarlo en el momento en que tome posesión.
En ese momento, expira la autoridad de mando y control nuclear de Trump, por lo que su tarjeta que le da paso a los códigos nucleares sería desactivada.
«Si un ayudante con el maletín acompaña a Trump en el Air Force One a Florida, ese ayudante se retirará de la presencia de Trump al mediodía y regresará a Washington con el maletín», contó Schwartz a CNN.
El proceso real
Y es que si bien el tema del maletín nuclear y sus usos han fascinado a millones de personas a lo largo de los años, lo que muchos no saben es que los códigos nucleares y las claves que permiten identificarse al presidente como tal para dar la orden de un ataque no están en la maleta.
La clave para activar un ataque nuclear está en una pequeña tarjeta de plástico que el presidente en turno guarda en un bolsillo.
Se le conoce como «código de oro» o «galleta».
El mandatario debe romperla por la mitad para verificar su identidad cuando contacta a la Unidad de Guerra en el Pentágono, la sede del Ministerio de la Defensa, para autorizar un ataque.
En la mañana de la inauguración, el nuevo presidente y el vicepresidente reciben instrucciones sobre cómo utilizar el maletín y el futuro mandatario recibe la tarjeta.
Según el Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, el Pentágono generalmente hace que las tarjetas del presidente saliente queden desactivadas al mediodía del día de la inauguración, mientras entra en funcionamiento la del nuevo mandatario.
Así, a las 12:01 PM del 20 de enero, en el caso hipotético de que Trump quisiera lanzar un ataque nuclear no podría hacerlo, tenga o no el maletín, como tampoco podría Biden a las 11:59 AM.
Los temores de que Trump pueda lanzar un ataque nuclear previo a su partida del gobierno levantaron preocupaciones tras la insurrección en el Capitolio a inicios de mes.
Entonces, la líder de la Cámara de Representantes Nacy Pelosy, se comunicó con la jefatura del Departamento de Defensa para pedirles que no siguieran las órdenes de Trump en caso de que activara los códigos antes de abandonar la Casa Blanca.
El maletín
Según explicó con anterioridad a la BBC Bruce Blair, un miembro del equipo de lanzamiento nuclear de EE.UU. ya retirado, contrariamente a la creencia popular, maletín nuclear no contiene un botón o códigos para lanzar automáticamente un arma nuclear, sino los protocolos para el ataque y el equipo que necesita para comunicarse con los asesores de mayor rango.
«En el maletín también hay un plan de guerra gráfico, en una sola hoja se especifican los objetivos, el número de muertos y las armas a disposición. Así es fácil entender la dimensión de la situación en pocos segundos», contó Blair.
FUENTE DE LA IMAGEN,GETTY IMAGES
Dentro del maletín no solo están los códigos para lanzar un ataque de destrucción masiva, también hay dos libros.
Uno contiene una detallada explicación de los tipos de ataque nuclear que se pueden realizar y otro una lista de «sitios seguros» para que el presidente estadounidense y su familia puedan refugiarse.
Muchas de las veces en las que fue visto el maletín, se advirtió una antena saliendo de él: es el sistema de telecomunicación para establecer una línea directa con el Pentágono.
Fuente: BBC NEWS
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民調
民意調查是什麼？民調什麼意思？
民意調查又稱為輿論調查或民意測驗，簡稱民調。一般而言，民調是一種為了解公眾對某些政治、社會問題與政策的意見和態度，由專業民調公司或媒體進行的調查方法。
目的在於通過網路、電話、或書面等媒介，對大量樣本的問卷調查抽樣，利用統計學的抽樣理論來推斷較為客觀，且能較為精確地推論社會輿論或民意動向的一種方法。
以下是民意調查的一些基本特點和重要性：
抽樣：由於不可能向每一個人詢問意見，所以調查者會選擇一個代表性的樣本進行調查。這樣本的大小和抽樣方法都會影響調查的準確性和可靠性。
問卷設計：為了確保獲得可靠的結果，問卷必須經過精心設計，問題要清晰、不帶偏見，且易於理解。
數據分析：收集到的數據將被分析以得出結論。這可能包括計算百分比、平均值、標準差等，以及更複雜的統計分析。
多種用途：民意調查可以用於各種目的，包括政策制定、選舉預測、市場研究、社會科學研究等。
限制：雖然民意調查是一個有價值的工具，但它也有其限制。例如，樣本可能不完全代表目標人群，或者問卷的設計可能導致偏見。
影響決策：民意調查的結果常常被政府、企業和其他組織用來影響其決策。
透明度和誠實：為了維護調查的可信度，調查組織應該提供其調查方法、樣本大小、抽樣方法和可能的誤差範圍等詳細資訊。
民調是怎麼調查的?
民意調查(輿論調查)的意義是指為瞭解大多數民眾的看法、意見、利益與需求，以科學、系統與公正的資料，蒐集可以代表全部群眾(母體)的部分群眾(抽樣)，設計問卷題目後，以人工或電腦詢問部分民眾對特定議題的看法與評價，利用抽樣出來部分民眾的意見與看法，來推論目前全部民眾的意見與看法，藉以衡量社會與政治的狀態。
以下是進行民調調查的基本步驟：
定義目標和目的：首先，調查者需要明確調查的目的。是要了解公眾對某個政策的看法？還是要評估某個政治候選人的支持率？
設計問卷：根據調查目的，研究者會設計一份問卷。問卷應該包含清晰、不帶偏見的問題，並避免導向性的語言。
選擇樣本：因為通常不可能調查所有人，所以會選擇一部分人作為代表。這部分人被稱為“樣本”。最理想的情況是使用隨機抽樣，以確保每個人都有被選中的機會。
收集數據：有多種方法可以收集數據，如面對面訪問、電話訪問、郵件調查或在線調查。
數據分析：一旦數據被收集，研究者會使用統計工具和技術進行分析，得出結論或洞見。
報告結果：分析完數據後，研究者會編寫報告或發布結果。報告通常會提供調查方法、樣本大小、誤差範圍和主要發現。
解釋誤差範圍：多數民調報告都會提供誤差範圍，例如“±3%”。這表示實際的結果有可能在報告結果的3%範圍內上下浮動。
民調調查的質量和可信度很大程度上取決於其設計和實施的方法。若是由專業和無偏見的組織進行，且使用科學的方法，那麼民調結果往往較為可靠。但即使是最高質量的民調也會有一定的誤差，因此解讀時應保持批判性思考。
為什麼要做民調？
民調提供了一種系統性的方式來了解大眾的意見、態度和信念。進行民調的原因多種多樣，以下是一些主要的動機：
政策制定和評估：政府和政策制定者進行民調，以了解公眾對某一議題或政策的看法。這有助於制定或調整政策，以反映大眾的需求和意見。
選舉和政治活動：政黨和候選人通常使用民調來評估自己在選舉中的地位，了解哪些議題對選民最重要，以及如何調整策略以吸引更多支持。
市場研究：企業和組織進行民調以了解消費者對產品、服務或品牌的態度，從而制定或調整市場策略。
社會科學研究：學者和研究者使用民調來了解人們的社會、文化和心理特征，以及其與行為的關係。
公眾與媒體的期望：民調提供了一種方式，使公眾、政府和企業得以了解社會的整體趨勢和態度。媒體也經常報導民調結果，提供公眾對當前議題的見解。
提供反饋和評估：無論是企業還是政府，都可以透過民調了解其表現、服務或政策的效果，並根據反饋進行改進。
預測和趨勢分析：民調可以幫助預測某些趨勢或行為的未來發展，如選舉結果、市場需求等。
教育和提高公眾意識：通過進行和公布民調，可以促使公眾對某一議題或問題有更深入的了解和討論。
民調可信嗎？
民意調查的結果數據隨處可見，尤其是政治性民調結果幾乎可說是天天在新聞上放送，對總統的滿意度下降了多少百分比，然而大家又信多少？
在景美市場的訪問中，我們了解到民眾對民調有一些普遍的觀點。大多數受訪者表示，他們對民調的可信度存有疑慮，主要原因是他們擔心政府可能會在調查中進行操控，以符合特定政治目標。
受訪者還提到，民意調查的結果通常不會對他們的投票意願產生影響。換句話說，他們的選擇通常受到更多因素的影響，例如候選人的政策立場和政府做事的認真與否，而不是單純依賴民調結果。
從訪問中我們可以得出的結論是，大多數民眾對民調持謹慎態度，並認為它們對他們的投票決策影響有限。
民意調查是什麼？民調什麼意思？
民意調查又稱為輿論調查或民意測驗，簡稱民調。一般而言，民調是一種為了解公眾對某些政治、社會問題與政策的意見和態度，由專業民調公司或媒體進行的調查方法。
目的在於通過網路、電話、或書面等媒介，對大量樣本的問卷調查抽樣，利用統計學的抽樣理論來推斷較為客觀，且能較為精確地推論社會輿論或民意動向的一種方法。
以下是民意調查的一些基本特點和重要性：
抽樣：由於不可能向每一個人詢問意見，所以調查者會選擇一個代表性的樣本進行調查。這樣本的大小和抽樣方法都會影響調查的準確性和可靠性。
問卷設計：為了確保獲得可靠的結果，問卷必須經過精心設計，問題要清晰、不帶偏見，且易於理解。
數據分析：收集到的數據將被分析以得出結論。這可能包括計算百分比、平均值、標準差等，以及更複雜的統計分析。
多種用途：民意調查可以用於各種目的，包括政策制定、選舉預測、市場研究、社會科學研究等。
限制：雖然民意調查是一個有價值的工具，但它也有其限制。例如，樣本可能不完全代表目標人群，或者問卷的設計可能導致偏見。
影響決策：民意調查的結果常常被政府、企業和其他組織用來影響其決策。
透明度和誠實：為了維護調查的可信度，調查組織應該提供其調查方法、樣本大小、抽樣方法和可能的誤差範圍等詳細資訊。
民調是怎麼調查的?
民意調查(輿論調查)的意義是指為瞭解大多數民眾的看法、意見、利益與需求，以科學、系統與公正的資料，蒐集可以代表全部群眾(母體)的部分群眾(抽樣)，設計問卷題目後，以人工或電腦詢問部分民眾對特定議題的看法與評價，利用抽樣出來部分民眾的意見與看法，來推論目前全部民眾的意見與看法，藉以衡量社會與政治的狀態。
以下是進行民調調查的基本步驟：
定義目標和目的：首先，調查者需要明確調查的目的。是要了解公眾對某個政策的看法？還是要評估某個政治候選人的支持率？
設計問卷：根據調查目的，研究者會設計一份問卷。問卷應該包含清晰、不帶偏見的問題，並避免導向性的語言。
選擇樣本：因為通常不可能調查所有人，所以會選擇一部分人作為代表。這部分人被稱為“樣本”。最理想的情況是使用隨機抽樣，以確保每個人都有被選中的機會。
收集數據：有多種方法可以收集數據，如面對面訪問、電話訪問、郵件調查或在線調查。
數據分析：一旦數據被收集，研究者會使用統計工具和技術進行分析，得出結論或洞見。
報告結果：分析完數據後，研究者會編寫報告或發布結果。報告通常會提供調查方法、樣本大小、誤差範圍和主要發現。
解釋誤差範圍：多數民調報告都會提供誤差範圍，例如“±3%”。這表示實際的結果有可能在報告結果的3%範圍內上下浮動。
民調調查的質量和可信度很大程度上取決於其設計和實施的方法。若是由專業和無偏見的組織進行，且使用科學的方法，那麼民調結果往往較為可靠。但即使是最高質量的民調也會有一定的誤差，因此解讀時應保持批判性思考。
為什麼要做民調？
民調提供了一種系統性的方式來了解大眾的意見、態度和信念。進行民調的原因多種多樣，以下是一些主要的動機：
政策制定和評估：政府和政策制定者進行民調，以了解公眾對某一議題或政策的看法。這有助於制定或調整政策，以反映大眾的需求和意見。
選舉和政治活動：政黨和候選人通常使用民調來評估自己在選舉中的地位，了解哪些議題對選民最重要，以及如何調整策略以吸引更多支持。
市場研究：企業和組織進行民調以了解消費者對產品、服務或品牌的態度，從而制定或調整市場策略。
社會科學研究：學者和研究者使用民調來了解人們的社會、文化和心理特征，以及其與行為的關係。
公眾與媒體的期望：民調提供了一種方式，使公眾、政府和企業得以了解社會的整體趨勢和態度。媒體也經常報導民調結果，提供公眾對當前議題的見解。
提供反饋和評估：無論是企業還是政府，都可以透過民調了解其表現、服務或政策的效果，並根據反饋進行改進。
預測和趨勢分析：民調可以幫助預測某些趨勢或行為的未來發展，如選舉結果、市場需求等。
教育和提高公眾意識：通過進行和公布民調，可以促使公眾對某一議題或問題有更深入的了解和討論。
民調可信嗎？
民意調查的結果數據隨處可見，尤其是政治性民調結果幾乎可說是天天在新聞上放送，對總統的滿意度下降了多少百分比，然而大家又信多少？
在景美市場的訪問中，我們了解到民眾對民調有一些普遍的觀點。大多數受訪者表示，他們對民調的可信度存有疑慮，主要原因是他們擔心政府可能會在調查中進行操控，以符合特定政治目標。
受訪者還提到，民意調查的結果通常不會對他們的投票意願產生影響。換句話說，他們的選擇通常受到更多因素的影響，例如候選人的政策立場和政府做事的認真與否，而不是單純依賴民調結果。
從訪問中我們可以得出的結論是，大多數民眾對民調持謹慎態度，並認為它們對他們的投票決策影響有限。
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I must applaud your talent for simplifying complex topics. Your ability to convey intricate ideas in such a relatable manner is admirable. You’ve made learning enjoyable and accessible for many, and I deeply appreciate that.
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2024娛樂城的創新趨勢
隨著2024年的到來，娛樂城業界正經歷著一場革命性的變遷。這一年，娛樂城不僅僅是賭博和娛樂的代名詞，更成為了科技創新和用戶體驗的集大成者。
首先，2024年的娛樂城極大地融合了最新的技術。增強現實（AR）和虛擬現實（VR）技術的引入，為玩家提供了沉浸式的賭博體驗。這種全新的遊戲方式不僅帶來視覺上的震撼，還為玩家創造了一種置身於真實賭場的感覺，而實際上他們可能只是坐在家中的沙發上。
其次，人工智能（AI）在娛樂城中的應用也達到了新高度。AI技術不僅用於增強遊戲的公平性和透明度，還在個性化玩家體驗方面發揮著重要作用。從個性化遊戲推薦到智能客服，AI的應用使得娛樂城更能滿足玩家的個別需求。
此外，線上娛樂城的安全性和隱私保護也獲得了顯著加強。隨著技術的進步，更加先進的加密技術和安全措施被用來保護玩家的資料和交易，從而確保一個安全可靠的遊戲環境。
2024年的娛樂城還強調負責任的賭博。許多平台採用了各種工具和資源來幫助玩家控制他們的賭博行為，如設置賭注限制、自我排除措施等，體現了對可持續賭博的承諾。
總之，2024年的娛樂城呈現出一個高度融合了技術、安全和負責任賭博的行業新面貌，為玩家提供了前所未有的娛樂體驗。隨著這些趨勢的持續發展，我們可以預見，娛樂城將不斷地創新和進步，為玩家帶來更多精彩和安全的娛樂選擇。
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