El Banco Central de la República Dominicana (BCRD), en su reunión de política monetaria del mes de junio de 2021, decidió mantener su tasa de interés de política monetaria en 3.00 % anual. De este modo, la tasa de la facilidad permanente de expansión de liquidez (Repos a 1 día) permanece en 3.50 % anual y la tasa de depósitos remunerados (Overnight) en 2.50 % anual. 

La decisión sobre la tasa de referencia se basa en el análisis exhaustivo del impacto del COVID-19 sobre la actividad económica y la evolución futura de la inflación. En particular, la variación mensual del índice de precios al consumidor (IPC) en mayo fue de 0.65 %, mientras que la inflación acumulada durante los primeros cinco meses de 2021 fue de 3.36 %. Asimismo, la inflación subyacente, que excluye los componentes más volátiles de la canasta, alcanzó 5.83 % en igual período. Por otro lado, la inflación interanual asociada a la serie analítica de la nueva base (octubre 2019 – septiembre 2020) se ubicó en 9.97 % en mayo de 2021, en cuyo comportamiento ha incidido el efecto estadístico con respecto a la base de comparación, ya que la variación mensual del IPC en mayo de 2020 fue negativa (-0.11 %).

La dinámica reciente de la inflación ha estado influenciada por choques de costos transitorios asociados a incrementos en los precios de insumos alimenticios importados, así como a mayores precios internacionales del petróleo y costos de fletes. Es importante señalar que el sistema de pronósticos del BCRD indica que a partir del mes de junio la inflación interanual comenzaría a moderarse, convergiendo gradualmente al rango meta de 4.0 % ± 1.0 % durante el horizonte de política monetaria, conforme se hayan disipado los referidos choques de oferta.

Esta senda proyectada para la inflación, las expectativas de los agentes económicos ancladas a la meta y la ausencia de presiones de demanda agregada, unido a la fortaleza de los fundamentos macroeconómicos, otorgan el espacio para que el Banco Central continúe manteniendo niveles de liquidez adecuados que contribuyan a consolidar el proceso de recuperación económica.

En el entorno internacional, a pesar de que el panorama asociado al COVID-19 se mantiene complejo, se han logrado avances importantes en los procesos de vacunación de múltiples países, alcanzándose casi tres mil millones de vacunas administradas a nivel mundial, lo que ha contribuido a perspectivas económicas más positivas. En ese sentido, Consensus Forecast ha corregido al alza su proyección de crecimiento para la economía global hasta 5.8 % en 2021.

En Estados Unidos de América (EUA), nuestro principal socio comercial, las perspectivas son cada vez más optimistas, apuntando a un crecimiento de 6.7 % para 2021, según Consensus. En efecto, la economía estadounidense se expandió en 0.4 % interanual durante el primer trimestre de 2021, mientras la inflación se situó de forma transitoria en 5.0 % en mayo. En este contexto, se prevé que la Reserva Federal mantenga la tasa de fondos federales en el rango de 0.0 % y 0.25 % anual durante 2021. Adicionalmente, la economía se ha beneficiado del programa de alivio para los hogares y las MIPYMES de US$1.9 billones, a la vez que se han anunciado planes para mejorar la infraestructura, que contribuirían a un mayor dinamismo económico.

Por otro lado, la actividad económica en la Zona Euro se está recuperando de forma más gradual, proyectándose para 2021 una expansión de 4.4 %. Frente a esta coyuntura, el Banco Central Europeo mantiene la tasa de depósitos overnight en -0.50 % anual, mientras implementa medidas de provisión de liquidez a través de la compra de títulos públicos y privados en el mercado secundario, así como operaciones de refinanciamiento de largo plazo. 

En América Latina, las perspectivas de Consensus para la mayoría de países han mejorado, previéndose una expansión de 5.5 % en 2021 para la región, si bien aún condicionada por la evolución de los contagios y las tensiones socio-políticas en economías importantes de la región. En este contexto, la mayoría de los bancos centrales mantienen bajas sus tasas de política monetaria y continúan implementando paquetes significativos de provisión de liquidez y de financiamiento al sector privado. 

Con relación a las materias primas, el precio del petróleo intermedio de Texas (WTI) se situó en torno a US$71 dólares el barril en promedio durante junio, en respuesta a una mayor recuperación de la actividad mundial. Hacia adelante los organismos especializados esperan que los precios del crudo se moderen a partir del segundo semestre del año, incidido por el incremento gradual de la oferta que se ha anunciado por la Organización de Países Exportadores de Petróleo y sus aliados (OPEP+), así como por la normalización en la producción en el resto del mundo. Asimismo, los precios internacionales de algunos bienes primarios alimenticios han comenzado a disminuir durante el mes de junio, lo que reduciría las presiones inflacionarias de origen externo, de sostenerse esta tendencia. Por otro lado, el precio promedio del oro se ubicó alrededor de US$ 1,850 dólares por onza troy en junio, al ser utilizado como refugio de valor, lo que beneficia a la República Dominicana a través de las exportaciones de este metal. 

En el entorno doméstico, el proceso de recuperación de la economía dominicana se ha acelerado, destacándose el crecimiento significativo del indicador mensual de actividad económica (IMAE) de 21.2 % interanual durante el mes de abril, siendo inclusive un 4.7 % más alto que el nivel de actividad observado en abril de 2019, previo a la pandemia. En términos acumulados, el crecimiento durante los primeros cuatro meses de 2021 se ubica en 13.4 %, influenciado por el dinamismo de sectores con un alto encadenamiento productivo como construcción, manufactura local, zonas francas, comercio, entre otros.

En este contexto, se han revisado al alza las proyecciones de crecimiento económico para este año, pudiendo alcanzar una expansión en torno a 8.0 % – 9.0 %, de forma conservadora. Estas perspectivas positivas para la economía dominicana son consistentes con lo esperado por organismos internacionales, agencias calificadoras y bancos de inversión; y están apoyadas en el dinamismo de la economía mundial, el avance en el plan de vacunación y la mejoría gradual del turismo, así como en el esfuerzo coordinado de políticas para reactivar la demanda interna.

En efecto, el Banco Central ha implementado un amplio programa de estímulo monetario desde marzo de 2020 a través de la reducción en 150 puntos básicos en la tasa de política monetaria y medidas para incentivar el crédito privado. En particular, se han dispuesto facilidades de liquidez en moneda nacional por RD$ 215 mil millones, cerca de 5 % del producto interno bruto (PIB), logrando que los intermediarios financieros hayan canalizado unos 90 mil préstamos y refinanciamientos.

Como resultado de las medidas monetarias, se ha registrado una reducción superior a los 300 puntos básicos en la tasa de interés activa promedio ponderado de la banca múltiple, mientras que los préstamos privados en moneda nacional se expanden en 8.6 % interanual al cierre de mayo, continuando como una de las tasas de crecimiento más altas de la región.

Por otro lado, se mantiene la tendencia positiva en las recaudaciones tributarias como un reflejo de la reactivación de la demanda interna. Asimismo, el Gobierno ha puesto en marcha distintos planes de apoyo a los sectores productivos, además del inicio de importantes proyectos de inversión pública. La reactivación esperada en el gasto de capital, junto a las medidas de estímulo monetario y al avance en los planes de vacunación, deberán contribuir a consolidar la recuperación de la actividad económica en los próximos trimestres. 

En el sector externo, se mantiene el alto dinamismo de las remesas que crecieron 46.2 % durante el mes de mayo y se estima que superarían los US$10,600 millones para el cierre de año 2021; mientras que el turismo se recupera gradualmente al recibir en el mes de mayo más de 391 mil pasajeros no residentes, equivalente a un 74 % de los recibidos durante el mismo mes de 2019. Se espera que las actividades del sector externo continúen con este buen desempeño, beneficiadas por el repunte de la economía de EUA y por la implementación de medidas de estímulo fiscal en ese país.

Los niveles de reservas internacionales se mantienen elevados, por encima de los US$ 12,500 millones, equivalentes a una cobertura de superior al 14 % del PIB y unos 7.5 meses de importaciones, superiores a las métricas recomendadas internacionalmente. Esta posición fuerte de reservas y la mejoría en el flujo de divisas han contribuido a mantener la estabilidad relativa del tipo de cambio, reflejada en una ausencia de presiones cambiarias durante el presente año. 

El Banco Central de la República Dominicana reafirma su compromiso de conducir la política monetaria hacia el logro de su meta de inflación y el buen funcionamiento de los sistemas financiero y de pagos. En ese sentido, la institución se mantendrá dando especial seguimiento al impacto del COVID-19 sobre la economía dominicana, encontrándose preparada para continuar reaccionando de forma oportuna ante factores que puedan poner en riesgo el objetivo de inflación y afectar la estabilidad macroeconómica.

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