Por: José Francisco Peña Guaba

Tengo más de 42 años en política y en el pasado siempre actué diferente al universo de los perredeístas, que con él sectarismo propio de la época no cultivaban relaciones con dirigentes de otras organizaciones políticas. Siempre vi eso como algo sin sentido, de manera que traté de establecer armoniosas relaciones con los contrarios y convertir en amigos a varios de estos, pese a las diferencias partidarias.

Tengo una relación de afectos de más de treinta años con Leonel Fernández. Quien me lo presentó fue el doctor Radhamés Jiménez Peña. Desde entonces construimos una amistad que permanece hasta ahora. Papá se dio cuenta de mi capacidad de hacer amigos en todos los litorales políticos, poniéndome a cargo de las relaciones inter-partidarias de la dirección de campaña, en ambos procesos electorales por el acuerdo de Santo Domingo en 1994 y 1996 en donde él fue candidato presidencial, para que pudiera construir puentes y conseguir apoyos, y también para establecer vínculos con los adversarios. Por eso fui enlace entre Leonel y él para temas delicados. Decidí, tiempo después de la ida a destiempo de mi padre, establecer relaciones políticas con el PLD a través de mi amigo Leonel, por lo que terminé siendo aliado de los morados por 20 años, lo que me permitió conocer entonces a casi toda la clase política.

Mis vínculos de amistad e institucionales con todo el sistema de partidos, sobre todo desde la constitución del FOPPPREDOM, me hacen ser neutro en temas institucionales y defiendo a la clase política y a todos los partidos políticos sin excepción, reconociendo que existe en todos ellos gente honesta y de gran calidad humana, mil veces mejores que en  el empresariado y en la sociedad civil, que solo le sirven a sus particulares intereses y a quienes parece no importarles mantener relación alguna con la población pobre del país, diferente al ADN de los políticos de oficio, que se identifican con los problemas de la gente.

Mis vínculos de larga data con Leonel no me impiden ser objetivo en mis análisis, ni mucho menos me impide crear relaciones de amistad con sus contendores. Soy así y él me conoce. Ahora, no abandono a mis amigos en los tiempos difíciles y se lo he probado, porque no acepté ser parte del danilismo en el poder y armé la alianza que lo llevó como candidato para el 2020, a sabiendas de que no teníamos el menor chance de clasificar en las elecciones y consciente que esto llevaría a Luis y el PRM al Palacio Nacional.

Acompañé a Leonel en todo el proceso de la precampaña de las primarias, a sabiendas que se impondría el candidato del gobierno, Gonzalo Castillo. Así se lo hice saber en varias reuniones a una parte de la dirección de la campaña, que no tomaron bien mis expresiones, unos porque la consideraban derrotistas y uno que otro que dudaron de mi lealtad al proyecto, porque les expuse con sinceridad mis opiniones. Así se lo hice saber a Omar Fernández, quien me preguntó en Funglode, el día 5 de octubre, qué pasaría en las primarias del día siguiente y le respondí que se impondría a Gonzalo por no más de 30 mil votos. Tenía datos, informaciones que me confirmaban que así sería, y así pasó.

Fue precisamente el Profesor Juan Bosch quien popularizó el concepto martiano de que en política “hay cosas que se ven y cosas que no se ven” y que las que no se ven, casi siempre son más importantes que las que se ven. Esto viene a colación porque todo el mundo supone que la división del PLD es obra únicamente de dos hombres (Danilo y Leonel), cuyos egos les impidieron ponerse de acuerdo y que, por sus particulares intereses, prefirieron hundir la nave peledeísta antes que ceder en favor del otro. Aunque en parte es cierto, nada más iluso que analizar que eso fue el verdadero detonante de la división morada. Aquí les explicaré, en este “decálogo de la división”, lo que realmente pasó:

1-            Es cierto que las diferencias internas nacen de celos de liderazgos, pero por la forma en que estaba estructurado el PLD eso era manejable, porque era un partido de organismos, donde las diferencias de sus dos más connotados dirigentes no lo debían dividir. El problema se inicia por el interés del gobierno de Danilo de controlar a su más alto organismo, el Comité Político, poniendo ahí a gente de su entorno particular, rompiendo con ello una tradición partidaria de que solo se llegaba al CP por méritos y por años de servicio a la organización. En parte eso fue culpa del buen amigo Félix Bautista, que desafió al gobierno y enseñó muy temprano las garras del leonelismo para mantener cuotas importantes en la dirección del partido, lo que produjo esa reacción del danilismo. Ahí comenzó todo, pese a las ya diferencias conocidas anterior a esa situación.

2-            El danilismo inició contra Leonel una campaña infame para evitar que fuera éste el candidato presidencial del 2016, cosa innecesaria porque Danilo, con su innovadora forma de actuar y con su inversión en áreas sociales sensibles (911, visitas sorpresas, tandas extendidas y estancias infantiles, entre otros) se había ganado el favor popular y, por ende, el derecho a repostularse. Así lo confirmaba los números de las encuestas que demostraban que él sería, para el 2016, mejor candidato que Leonel. Pero las acciones “non sanctas” llevadas a cabo por un sector del gobierno de Danilo contra el presidente del Partido, creó malquerencias y profundas heridas entre los grupos. Lo interesante de esto es que quienes crearon esa situación desde el gobierno, no eran ortodoxos peledeistas sino los vinculados en el gobierno de Danilo con la sociedad Civil, los americanos y el gran empresariado ¡Qué inocente coincidencia!

3-            Para detener a Leonel en el 2020 el gobierno necesitaba construir un marco jurídico electoral que les garantizara la victoria interna y que, a la vez, le creara trabas a Leonel en una eventual salida de éste de la organización, una especie de “te engaño, te gano y te amarro”. Eso se pretendió hacer con las leyes Electoral y de Partidos, solo que en la prisa para su aprobación se cometieron gazapos que le impidieron llevar a feliz término su plan. ¡Qué casualidad, en dicho plan, por su redacción y aprobación, trabajaron representantes de la sociedad civil! ¡Qué coincidencia, otra vez!

4-            Una inobservancia de los que hicieron ese “traje a la medida” de las leyes Electoral y de Partidos, es que no se dieron cuenta a tiempo de que eso caería en manos del Tribunal Superior Electoral y del Tribunal Constitucional, y que ahí el leonelismo y los sectores que deseaban sacar del poder al PLD harían mayoría e impedirían que se cumpliera el plan del gobierno. Las sentencias hablaron por sí solas, creándole un desconcierto total al danilismo, pues fue ahí cuando se dieron cuenta de que no las tenían todas consigo.

5-            Las primarias del 6 de octubre fueron el “Waterloo” del PLD: ese día se selló su derrota y su segura salida del poder. Lo más grande fue la ingenuidad supina del gobierno de creer que controlaba la Junta Central Electoral para sus particulares fines. Nada más alejado de la realidad, vistos los resultados.

6-            Lo qué pasó el 6 de octubre fue una acción combinada de todos los sectores que deseaban sacar del poder al PLD y esa conjura fue tan inteligentemente hecha, que le hizo creer al gobierno que era porque los favorecía y a Leonel de que lo sucedido allí contra él, era obra del gobierno únicamente, o sea, jugaron con los dos para lograr sus planes, para que de ahí saliera la definitiva división del PLD. Los fuegos artificiales de “problemas en el software” ocultaron el verdadero timo del voto masivo en la región del sur del país, donde votaron hasta casi las 2:00 am, expidiéndose a propósito una resolución que, de manera inaudita, dejó abierta la votación pese a que horas antes se había iniciado el escrutinio de votos, algo insólito y que nunca se había visto en la historia electoral: esto le permitió al gobierno buscar los votos de la diferencia, lo que les faltaba para que Leonel perdiera. Pero cuando lo lograron, a quien le hicieron jaque no solo fue a Leonel sino a todo el peledeismo .

7-            El gobierno, orondo por el supuesto apoyo dado por la JCE para reconocer el cuestionado “triunfo” de Gonzalo, y Leonel, convencido de que un “algoritmo” de única y deliberada acción del danilismo era el responsable de su derrota. Pero ninguno de los sectores en pugna se dio cuenta, al calor de la confrontación, de que los sectores que no querían más PLD en el poder habían jugado sus cartas y la habían ganado, porque habían inoculado el germen de la división y era inminente que esta se llevaría a cabo.

8-            Queda por saber por qué el gobierno, con sus mecanismos de información privilegiada, no se dio cuenta a tiempo del gancho en que cayó. Al parecer, dentro de su liderazgo todos tenían el síndrome de Hibris, que no es más que el impulso irracional y desequilibrado del orgullo y la arrogancia que hace desconocer frenos y límites. En su demencial interés de aplastar, al contrario, no observaron que Leonel era su mal menor, porque, aunque perderían la presidencia en un acuerdo con él hubiesen conservado importantes cuotas de poder.

9-            La JCE de entonces se sumó al clamor nacional y jugó a favor de la mayoría del pueblo, que estaba en contra del gobierno y, a la vez, complació a los sectores de poder que no querían más PLD en el poder. Por eso sus resoluciones, que en principio beneficiaban al danilismo, después de lograda la división ninguna más lo favoreció, inclusive aquella que pedía una anulación parcial de las elecciones municipales para que solo fuera donde había voto electrónico, o la que aceptó la candidatura presidencial de Leonel sin chistar. Pero fue tan bien montado ese teatro que, mientras al frente en la plazoleta se les apostrofaba a los miembros de la misma, los ingenuos gobiernistas no sabían que ya su destino estaba marcado, que su salida del poder era inminente y que su fecha estaba marcada para el 16 de agosto.

10-         Los sectores que incidieron ante la JCE para sacar al PLD del gobierno tenían una clara determinación y, a mi parecer, 5 razones válidas: primero, que estaban hastiados de que fuera en un comité político que se decidiera todo lo que habría que hacer en el país; segundo, los empresarios, sobre todos los tradicionales, sabían que el poder peledeista les había construido una clase  de nuevos  ricos y estos les hacían feroz competencia comercial pero contaban con el favor estatal en sus negocios; tercero, la iglesia nunca le perdonó al PLD su apoyo al sector protestante, que le hizo disminuir sustancialmente su feligresía, dándole a éstas recursos, derecho a casar y permisos de canales y emisoras, más una oficina en palacio, todo lo que las estaba ayudando a su crecimiento día por día; cuarto, a los americanos nunca le gustó el PLD, les convienen los gobiernos genuflexos y los peledeistas nunca lo fueron, además de que tenían excelentes relaciones con las gobiernos de izquierda de Cuba, Venezuela, Ecuador, Brasil, Argentina, etcétera. El golpe mortal que determinó el rompimiento con los intereses norteamericanos fue el establecimiento formal de las relaciones con China. Quinto, en el caso de la sociedad civil, ellos necesitaban una mayor representación que la que tenían con Danilo, que de por sí era importante, pero los mismos son insaciables y todos sabemos que buscan sustituir sin compromisos reales y sin buscar un voto a los partidos políticos.

Cómo verán la salida del PLD fue una acción concertada de varios sectores de poder, que usaron una táctica diferente con uno y otro grupo (Danilo y Leonel) para lograr sus fines ulteriores. Le di un seguimiento permanente a cada acción, para descubrir lo que estaba realmente pasando, lo que no era ajeno para el Candidato Luis Abinader, que sabía, por la seguridad con que me hablaba, que el plan de sacar del poder al PLD estaba en marcha y que eso lo llevaría indefectiblemente al poder. Claro está, con compromisos muy serios con esos sectores que lo ayudaron a ganar la presidencia. Por eso siempre he sabido que Luis lo que está haciendo es cumpliendo primero con aquellos que hicieron salir del poder a los morados.

El golpe final que esos sectores le dieron a los dos grupos del PLD fue el golpe perceptivo de las encuestas, días antes de las elecciones por parte de las más reputadas encuestadoras, representadas aquí por grupos empresariales que, respaldadas por los mismos sectores que habían determinado la división electoral peledeista, en juego audaz, le hicieron un Jaque mate al Rey, porque con esas encuestas lograron bajarles puntos a ambos grupos para ahorrarse la segunda vuelta electoral. Pero aún más, para que ninguno de los dos, ni PLD ni la Fuerza del Pueblo tuviesen capacidad de negociación alguna con Luis ni con el PRM. No podían permitir que una segunda vuelta electoral los sacara del protagonismo de la ecuación realizada por ellos, (los sectores intervinientes) ya que era muy riesgoso, porque si no hacían ganar a Luis en la primera vuelta se exponían a la oferta de apoyo por una cuota de poder de parte de la Fuerza del Pueblo o por una propuesta del PLD del  retiro de su candidato oficial de la contienda para fines de la  declaración  como  ganador de Luis de esas  elecciones, sin necesidad de una segunda vuelta electoral. Está más que claro que, para llevarse a cabo tal acción, ¡gratis no podía ser!

925 comentarios en «PLD, crónica del secretismo de una división»
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  453. Tiêu đề: «B52 Club – Trải nghiệm Game Đánh Bài Trực Tuyến Tuyệt Vời»

    B52 Club là một cổng game phổ biến trong cộng đồng trực tuyến, đưa người chơi vào thế giới hấp dẫn với nhiều yếu tố quan trọng đã giúp trò chơi trở nên nổi tiếng và thu hút đông đảo người tham gia.

    1. Bảo mật và An toàn
    B52 Club đặt sự bảo mật và an toàn lên hàng đầu. Trang web đảm bảo bảo vệ thông tin người dùng, tiền tệ và dữ liệu cá nhân bằng cách sử dụng biện pháp bảo mật mạnh mẽ. Chứng chỉ SSL đảm bảo việc mã hóa thông tin, cùng với việc được cấp phép bởi các tổ chức uy tín, tạo nên một môi trường chơi game đáng tin cậy.

    2. Đa dạng về Trò chơi
    B52 Play nổi tiếng với sự đa dạng trong danh mục trò chơi. Người chơi có thể thưởng thức nhiều trò chơi đánh bài phổ biến như baccarat, blackjack, poker, và nhiều trò chơi đánh bài cá nhân khác. Điều này tạo ra sự đa dạng và hứng thú cho mọi người chơi.

    3. Hỗ trợ Khách hàng Chuyên Nghiệp
    B52 Club tự hào với đội ngũ hỗ trợ khách hàng chuyên nghiệp, tận tâm và hiệu quả. Người chơi có thể liên hệ thông qua các kênh như chat trực tuyến, email, điện thoại, hoặc mạng xã hội. Vấn đề kỹ thuật, tài khoản hay bất kỳ thắc mắc nào đều được giải quyết nhanh chóng.

    4. Phương Thức Thanh Toán An Toàn
    B52 Club cung cấp nhiều phương thức thanh toán để đảm bảo người chơi có thể dễ dàng nạp và rút tiền một cách an toàn và thuận tiện. Quy trình thanh toán được thiết kế để mang lại trải nghiệm đơn giản và hiệu quả cho người chơi.

    5. Chính Sách Thưởng và Ưu Đãi Hấp Dẫn
    Khi đánh giá một cổng game B52, chính sách thưởng và ưu đãi luôn được chú ý. B52 Club không chỉ mang đến những chính sách thưởng hấp dẫn mà còn cam kết đối xử công bằng và minh bạch đối với người chơi. Điều này giúp thu hút và giữ chân người chơi trên thương trường game đánh bài trực tuyến.

    Hướng Dẫn Tải và Cài Đặt
    Để tham gia vào B52 Club, người chơi có thể tải file APK cho hệ điều hành Android hoặc iOS theo hướng dẫn chi tiết trên trang web. Quy trình đơn giản và thuận tiện giúp người chơi nhanh chóng trải nghiệm trò chơi.

    Với những ưu điểm vượt trội như vậy, B52 Club không chỉ là nơi giải trí tuyệt vời mà còn là điểm đến lý tưởng cho những người yêu thích thách thức và may mắn.

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  540. オンラインカジノ
    オンラインカジノとオンラインギャンブルの現代的展開
    オンラインカジノの世界は、技術の進歩と共に急速に進化しています。これらのプラットフォームは、従来の実際のカジノの体験をデジタル空間に移し、プレイヤーに新しい形式の娯楽を提供しています。オンラインカジノは、スロットマシン、ポーカー、ブラックジャック、ルーレットなど、さまざまなゲームを提供しており、実際のカジノの興奮を維持しながら、アクセスの容易さと利便性を提供します。

    一方で、オンラインギャンブルは、より広範な概念であり、スポーツベッティング、宝くじ、バーチャルスポーツ、そしてオンラインカジノゲームまでを含んでいます。インターネットとモバイルテクノロジーの普及により、オンラインギャンブルは世界中で大きな人気を博しています。オンラインプラットフォームは、伝統的な賭博施設に比べて、より多様なゲーム選択、便利なアクセス、そしてしばしば魅力的なボーナスやプロモーションを提供しています。

    安全性と規制
    オンラインカジノとオンラインギャンブルの世界では、安全性と規制が非常に重要です。多くの国々では、オンラインギャンブルを規制する法律があり、安全なプレイ環境を確保するためのライセンスシステムを設けています。これにより、不正行為や詐欺からプレイヤーを守るとともに、責任ある賭博の促進が図られています。

    技術の進歩
    最新のテクノロジーは、オンラインカジノとオンラインギャンブルの体験を一層豊かにしています。例えば、仮想現実(VR)技術の使用は、プレイヤーに没入型のギャンブル体験を提供し、実際のカジノにいるかのような感覚を生み出しています。また、ブロックチェーン技術の導入は、より透明で安全な取引を可能にし、プレイヤーの信頼を高めています。

    未来への展望
    オンラインカジノとオンラインギャンブルは、今後も技術の進歩とともに進化し続けるでしょう。人工知能(AI)の更なる統合、モバイル技術の発展、さらには新しいゲームの創造により、この分野は引き続き成長し、世界中のプレイヤーに新しい娯楽の形を提供し続けることでしょう。

    この記事では、オンラインカジノとオンラインギャンブルの現状、安全性、技術の影響、そして将来の展望に焦点を当てています。この分野は、技術革新によって絶えず変化し続ける魅力的な領域です。

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  614. 民意調查是什麼?民調什麼意思?
    民意調查又稱為輿論調查或民意測驗,簡稱民調。一般而言,民調是一種為了解公眾對某些政治、社會問題與政策的意見和態度,由專業民調公司或媒體進行的調查方法。

    目的在於通過網路、電話、或書面等媒介,對大量樣本的問卷調查抽樣,利用統計學的抽樣理論來推斷較為客觀,且能較為精確地推論社會輿論或民意動向的一種方法。
    以下是民意調查的一些基本特點和重要性:

    抽樣:由於不可能向每一個人詢問意見,所以調查者會選擇一個代表性的樣本進行調查。這樣本的大小和抽樣方法都會影響調查的準確性和可靠性。
    問卷設計:為了確保獲得可靠的結果,問卷必須經過精心設計,問題要清晰、不帶偏見,且易於理解。
    數據分析:收集到的數據將被分析以得出結論。這可能包括計算百分比、平均值、標準差等,以及更複雜的統計分析。
    多種用途:民意調查可以用於各種目的,包括政策制定、選舉預測、市場研究、社會科學研究等。
    限制:雖然民意調查是一個有價值的工具,但它也有其限制。例如,樣本可能不完全代表目標人群,或者問卷的設計可能導致偏見。
    影響決策:民意調查的結果常常被政府、企業和其他組織用來影響其決策。
    透明度和誠實:為了維護調查的可信度,調查組織應該提供其調查方法、樣本大小、抽樣方法和可能的誤差範圍等詳細資訊。
    民調是怎麼調查的?
    民意調查(輿論調查)的意義是指為瞭解大多數民眾的看法、意見、利益與需求,以科學、系統與公正的資料,蒐集可以代表全部群眾(母體)的部分群眾(抽樣),設計問卷題目後,以人工或電腦詢問部分民眾對特定議題的看法與評價,利用抽樣出來部分民眾的意見與看法,來推論目前全部民眾的意見與看法,藉以衡量社會與政治的狀態。

    以下是進行民調調查的基本步驟:

    定義目標和目的:首先,調查者需要明確調查的目的。是要了解公眾對某個政策的看法?還是要評估某個政治候選人的支持率?
    設計問卷:根據調查目的,研究者會設計一份問卷。問卷應該包含清晰、不帶偏見的問題,並避免導向性的語言。
    選擇樣本:因為通常不可能調查所有人,所以會選擇一部分人作為代表。這部分人被稱為“樣本”。最理想的情況是使用隨機抽樣,以確保每個人都有被選中的機會。
    收集數據:有多種方法可以收集數據,如面對面訪問、電話訪問、郵件調查或在線調查。
    數據分析:一旦數據被收集,研究者會使用統計工具和技術進行分析,得出結論或洞見。
    報告結果:分析完數據後,研究者會編寫報告或發布結果。報告通常會提供調查方法、樣本大小、誤差範圍和主要發現。
    解釋誤差範圍:多數民調報告都會提供誤差範圍,例如“±3%”。這表示實際的結果有可能在報告結果的3%範圍內上下浮動。
    民調調查的質量和可信度很大程度上取決於其設計和實施的方法。若是由專業和無偏見的組織進行,且使用科學的方法,那麼民調結果往往較為可靠。但即使是最高質量的民調也會有一定的誤差,因此解讀時應保持批判性思考。

    為什麼要做民調?
    民調提供了一種系統性的方式來了解大眾的意見、態度和信念。進行民調的原因多種多樣,以下是一些主要的動機:

    政策制定和評估:政府和政策制定者進行民調,以了解公眾對某一議題或政策的看法。這有助於制定或調整政策,以反映大眾的需求和意見。
    選舉和政治活動:政黨和候選人通常使用民調來評估自己在選舉中的地位,了解哪些議題對選民最重要,以及如何調整策略以吸引更多支持。
    市場研究:企業和組織進行民調以了解消費者對產品、服務或品牌的態度,從而制定或調整市場策略。
    社會科學研究:學者和研究者使用民調來了解人們的社會、文化和心理特征,以及其與行為的關係。
    公眾與媒體的期望:民調提供了一種方式,使公眾、政府和企業得以了解社會的整體趨勢和態度。媒體也經常報導民調結果,提供公眾對當前議題的見解。
    提供反饋和評估:無論是企業還是政府,都可以透過民調了解其表現、服務或政策的效果,並根據反饋進行改進。
    預測和趨勢分析:民調可以幫助預測某些趨勢或行為的未來發展,如選舉結果、市場需求等。
    教育和提高公眾意識:通過進行和公布民調,可以促使公眾對某一議題或問題有更深入的了解和討論。

    民調可信嗎?
    民意調查的結果數據隨處可見,尤其是政治性民調結果幾乎可說是天天在新聞上放送,對總統的滿意度下降了多少百分比,然而大家又信多少?

    在景美市場的訪問中,我們了解到民眾對民調有一些普遍的觀點。大多數受訪者表示,他們對民調的可信度存有疑慮,主要原因是他們擔心政府可能會在調查中進行操控,以符合特定政治目標。

    受訪者還提到,民意調查的結果通常不會對他們的投票意願產生影響。換句話說,他們的選擇通常受到更多因素的影響,例如候選人的政策立場和政府做事的認真與否,而不是單純依賴民調結果。

    從訪問中我們可以得出的結論是,大多數民眾對民調持謹慎態度,並認為它們對他們的投票決策影響有限。

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  623. 2024總統大選民調
    民意調查是什麼?民調什麼意思?
    民意調查又稱為輿論調查或民意測驗,簡稱民調。一般而言,民調是一種為了解公眾對某些政治、社會問題與政策的意見和態度,由專業民調公司或媒體進行的調查方法。

    目的在於通過網路、電話、或書面等媒介,對大量樣本的問卷調查抽樣,利用統計學的抽樣理論來推斷較為客觀,且能較為精確地推論社會輿論或民意動向的一種方法。
    以下是民意調查的一些基本特點和重要性:

    抽樣:由於不可能向每一個人詢問意見,所以調查者會選擇一個代表性的樣本進行調查。這樣本的大小和抽樣方法都會影響調查的準確性和可靠性。
    問卷設計:為了確保獲得可靠的結果,問卷必須經過精心設計,問題要清晰、不帶偏見,且易於理解。
    數據分析:收集到的數據將被分析以得出結論。這可能包括計算百分比、平均值、標準差等,以及更複雜的統計分析。
    多種用途:民意調查可以用於各種目的,包括政策制定、選舉預測、市場研究、社會科學研究等。
    限制:雖然民意調查是一個有價值的工具,但它也有其限制。例如,樣本可能不完全代表目標人群,或者問卷的設計可能導致偏見。
    影響決策:民意調查的結果常常被政府、企業和其他組織用來影響其決策。
    透明度和誠實:為了維護調查的可信度,調查組織應該提供其調查方法、樣本大小、抽樣方法和可能的誤差範圍等詳細資訊。
    民調是怎麼調查的?
    民意調查(輿論調查)的意義是指為瞭解大多數民眾的看法、意見、利益與需求,以科學、系統與公正的資料,蒐集可以代表全部群眾(母體)的部分群眾(抽樣),設計問卷題目後,以人工或電腦詢問部分民眾對特定議題的看法與評價,利用抽樣出來部分民眾的意見與看法,來推論目前全部民眾的意見與看法,藉以衡量社會與政治的狀態。

    以下是進行民調調查的基本步驟:

    定義目標和目的:首先,調查者需要明確調查的目的。是要了解公眾對某個政策的看法?還是要評估某個政治候選人的支持率?
    設計問卷:根據調查目的,研究者會設計一份問卷。問卷應該包含清晰、不帶偏見的問題,並避免導向性的語言。
    選擇樣本:因為通常不可能調查所有人,所以會選擇一部分人作為代表。這部分人被稱為“樣本”。最理想的情況是使用隨機抽樣,以確保每個人都有被選中的機會。
    收集數據:有多種方法可以收集數據,如面對面訪問、電話訪問、郵件調查或在線調查。
    數據分析:一旦數據被收集,研究者會使用統計工具和技術進行分析,得出結論或洞見。
    報告結果:分析完數據後,研究者會編寫報告或發布結果。報告通常會提供調查方法、樣本大小、誤差範圍和主要發現。
    解釋誤差範圍:多數民調報告都會提供誤差範圍,例如“±3%”。這表示實際的結果有可能在報告結果的3%範圍內上下浮動。
    民調調查的質量和可信度很大程度上取決於其設計和實施的方法。若是由專業和無偏見的組織進行,且使用科學的方法,那麼民調結果往往較為可靠。但即使是最高質量的民調也會有一定的誤差,因此解讀時應保持批判性思考。

    為什麼要做民調?
    民調提供了一種系統性的方式來了解大眾的意見、態度和信念。進行民調的原因多種多樣,以下是一些主要的動機:

    政策制定和評估:政府和政策制定者進行民調,以了解公眾對某一議題或政策的看法。這有助於制定或調整政策,以反映大眾的需求和意見。
    選舉和政治活動:政黨和候選人通常使用民調來評估自己在選舉中的地位,了解哪些議題對選民最重要,以及如何調整策略以吸引更多支持。
    市場研究:企業和組織進行民調以了解消費者對產品、服務或品牌的態度,從而制定或調整市場策略。
    社會科學研究:學者和研究者使用民調來了解人們的社會、文化和心理特征,以及其與行為的關係。
    公眾與媒體的期望:民調提供了一種方式,使公眾、政府和企業得以了解社會的整體趨勢和態度。媒體也經常報導民調結果,提供公眾對當前議題的見解。
    提供反饋和評估:無論是企業還是政府,都可以透過民調了解其表現、服務或政策的效果,並根據反饋進行改進。
    預測和趨勢分析:民調可以幫助預測某些趨勢或行為的未來發展,如選舉結果、市場需求等。
    教育和提高公眾意識:通過進行和公布民調,可以促使公眾對某一議題或問題有更深入的了解和討論。

    民調可信嗎?
    民意調查的結果數據隨處可見,尤其是政治性民調結果幾乎可說是天天在新聞上放送,對總統的滿意度下降了多少百分比,然而大家又信多少?

    在景美市場的訪問中,我們了解到民眾對民調有一些普遍的觀點。大多數受訪者表示,他們對民調的可信度存有疑慮,主要原因是他們擔心政府可能會在調查中進行操控,以符合特定政治目標。

    受訪者還提到,民意調查的結果通常不會對他們的投票意願產生影響。換句話說,他們的選擇通常受到更多因素的影響,例如候選人的政策立場和政府做事的認真與否,而不是單純依賴民調結果。

    從訪問中我們可以得出的結論是,大多數民眾對民調持謹慎態度,並認為它們對他們的投票決策影響有限。

  624. 總統民調
    民意調查是什麼?民調什麼意思?
    民意調查又稱為輿論調查或民意測驗,簡稱民調。一般而言,民調是一種為了解公眾對某些政治、社會問題與政策的意見和態度,由專業民調公司或媒體進行的調查方法。

    目的在於通過網路、電話、或書面等媒介,對大量樣本的問卷調查抽樣,利用統計學的抽樣理論來推斷較為客觀,且能較為精確地推論社會輿論或民意動向的一種方法。
    以下是民意調查的一些基本特點和重要性:

    抽樣:由於不可能向每一個人詢問意見,所以調查者會選擇一個代表性的樣本進行調查。這樣本的大小和抽樣方法都會影響調查的準確性和可靠性。
    問卷設計:為了確保獲得可靠的結果,問卷必須經過精心設計,問題要清晰、不帶偏見,且易於理解。
    數據分析:收集到的數據將被分析以得出結論。這可能包括計算百分比、平均值、標準差等,以及更複雜的統計分析。
    多種用途:民意調查可以用於各種目的,包括政策制定、選舉預測、市場研究、社會科學研究等。
    限制:雖然民意調查是一個有價值的工具,但它也有其限制。例如,樣本可能不完全代表目標人群,或者問卷的設計可能導致偏見。
    影響決策:民意調查的結果常常被政府、企業和其他組織用來影響其決策。
    透明度和誠實:為了維護調查的可信度,調查組織應該提供其調查方法、樣本大小、抽樣方法和可能的誤差範圍等詳細資訊。
    民調是怎麼調查的?
    民意調查(輿論調查)的意義是指為瞭解大多數民眾的看法、意見、利益與需求,以科學、系統與公正的資料,蒐集可以代表全部群眾(母體)的部分群眾(抽樣),設計問卷題目後,以人工或電腦詢問部分民眾對特定議題的看法與評價,利用抽樣出來部分民眾的意見與看法,來推論目前全部民眾的意見與看法,藉以衡量社會與政治的狀態。

    以下是進行民調調查的基本步驟:

    定義目標和目的:首先,調查者需要明確調查的目的。是要了解公眾對某個政策的看法?還是要評估某個政治候選人的支持率?
    設計問卷:根據調查目的,研究者會設計一份問卷。問卷應該包含清晰、不帶偏見的問題,並避免導向性的語言。
    選擇樣本:因為通常不可能調查所有人,所以會選擇一部分人作為代表。這部分人被稱為“樣本”。最理想的情況是使用隨機抽樣,以確保每個人都有被選中的機會。
    收集數據:有多種方法可以收集數據,如面對面訪問、電話訪問、郵件調查或在線調查。
    數據分析:一旦數據被收集,研究者會使用統計工具和技術進行分析,得出結論或洞見。
    報告結果:分析完數據後,研究者會編寫報告或發布結果。報告通常會提供調查方法、樣本大小、誤差範圍和主要發現。
    解釋誤差範圍:多數民調報告都會提供誤差範圍,例如“±3%”。這表示實際的結果有可能在報告結果的3%範圍內上下浮動。
    民調調查的質量和可信度很大程度上取決於其設計和實施的方法。若是由專業和無偏見的組織進行,且使用科學的方法,那麼民調結果往往較為可靠。但即使是最高質量的民調也會有一定的誤差,因此解讀時應保持批判性思考。

    為什麼要做民調?
    民調提供了一種系統性的方式來了解大眾的意見、態度和信念。進行民調的原因多種多樣,以下是一些主要的動機:

    政策制定和評估:政府和政策制定者進行民調,以了解公眾對某一議題或政策的看法。這有助於制定或調整政策,以反映大眾的需求和意見。
    選舉和政治活動:政黨和候選人通常使用民調來評估自己在選舉中的地位,了解哪些議題對選民最重要,以及如何調整策略以吸引更多支持。
    市場研究:企業和組織進行民調以了解消費者對產品、服務或品牌的態度,從而制定或調整市場策略。
    社會科學研究:學者和研究者使用民調來了解人們的社會、文化和心理特征,以及其與行為的關係。
    公眾與媒體的期望:民調提供了一種方式,使公眾、政府和企業得以了解社會的整體趨勢和態度。媒體也經常報導民調結果,提供公眾對當前議題的見解。
    提供反饋和評估:無論是企業還是政府,都可以透過民調了解其表現、服務或政策的效果,並根據反饋進行改進。
    預測和趨勢分析:民調可以幫助預測某些趨勢或行為的未來發展,如選舉結果、市場需求等。
    教育和提高公眾意識:通過進行和公布民調,可以促使公眾對某一議題或問題有更深入的了解和討論。

    民調可信嗎?
    民意調查的結果數據隨處可見,尤其是政治性民調結果幾乎可說是天天在新聞上放送,對總統的滿意度下降了多少百分比,然而大家又信多少?

    在景美市場的訪問中,我們了解到民眾對民調有一些普遍的觀點。大多數受訪者表示,他們對民調的可信度存有疑慮,主要原因是他們擔心政府可能會在調查中進行操控,以符合特定政治目標。

    受訪者還提到,民意調查的結果通常不會對他們的投票意願產生影響。換句話說,他們的選擇通常受到更多因素的影響,例如候選人的政策立場和政府做事的認真與否,而不是單純依賴民調結果。

    從訪問中我們可以得出的結論是,大多數民眾對民調持謹慎態度,並認為它們對他們的投票決策影響有限。

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  634. 最新民調
    民意調查是什麼?民調什麼意思?
    民意調查又稱為輿論調查或民意測驗,簡稱民調。一般而言,民調是一種為了解公眾對某些政治、社會問題與政策的意見和態度,由專業民調公司或媒體進行的調查方法。

    目的在於通過網路、電話、或書面等媒介,對大量樣本的問卷調查抽樣,利用統計學的抽樣理論來推斷較為客觀,且能較為精確地推論社會輿論或民意動向的一種方法。
    以下是民意調查的一些基本特點和重要性:

    抽樣:由於不可能向每一個人詢問意見,所以調查者會選擇一個代表性的樣本進行調查。這樣本的大小和抽樣方法都會影響調查的準確性和可靠性。
    問卷設計:為了確保獲得可靠的結果,問卷必須經過精心設計,問題要清晰、不帶偏見,且易於理解。
    數據分析:收集到的數據將被分析以得出結論。這可能包括計算百分比、平均值、標準差等,以及更複雜的統計分析。
    多種用途:民意調查可以用於各種目的,包括政策制定、選舉預測、市場研究、社會科學研究等。
    限制:雖然民意調查是一個有價值的工具,但它也有其限制。例如,樣本可能不完全代表目標人群,或者問卷的設計可能導致偏見。
    影響決策:民意調查的結果常常被政府、企業和其他組織用來影響其決策。
    透明度和誠實:為了維護調查的可信度,調查組織應該提供其調查方法、樣本大小、抽樣方法和可能的誤差範圍等詳細資訊。
    民調是怎麼調查的?
    民意調查(輿論調查)的意義是指為瞭解大多數民眾的看法、意見、利益與需求,以科學、系統與公正的資料,蒐集可以代表全部群眾(母體)的部分群眾(抽樣),設計問卷題目後,以人工或電腦詢問部分民眾對特定議題的看法與評價,利用抽樣出來部分民眾的意見與看法,來推論目前全部民眾的意見與看法,藉以衡量社會與政治的狀態。

    以下是進行民調調查的基本步驟:

    定義目標和目的:首先,調查者需要明確調查的目的。是要了解公眾對某個政策的看法?還是要評估某個政治候選人的支持率?
    設計問卷:根據調查目的,研究者會設計一份問卷。問卷應該包含清晰、不帶偏見的問題,並避免導向性的語言。
    選擇樣本:因為通常不可能調查所有人,所以會選擇一部分人作為代表。這部分人被稱為“樣本”。最理想的情況是使用隨機抽樣,以確保每個人都有被選中的機會。
    收集數據:有多種方法可以收集數據,如面對面訪問、電話訪問、郵件調查或在線調查。
    數據分析:一旦數據被收集,研究者會使用統計工具和技術進行分析,得出結論或洞見。
    報告結果:分析完數據後,研究者會編寫報告或發布結果。報告通常會提供調查方法、樣本大小、誤差範圍和主要發現。
    解釋誤差範圍:多數民調報告都會提供誤差範圍,例如“±3%”。這表示實際的結果有可能在報告結果的3%範圍內上下浮動。
    民調調查的質量和可信度很大程度上取決於其設計和實施的方法。若是由專業和無偏見的組織進行,且使用科學的方法,那麼民調結果往往較為可靠。但即使是最高質量的民調也會有一定的誤差,因此解讀時應保持批判性思考。

    為什麼要做民調?
    民調提供了一種系統性的方式來了解大眾的意見、態度和信念。進行民調的原因多種多樣,以下是一些主要的動機:

    政策制定和評估:政府和政策制定者進行民調,以了解公眾對某一議題或政策的看法。這有助於制定或調整政策,以反映大眾的需求和意見。
    選舉和政治活動:政黨和候選人通常使用民調來評估自己在選舉中的地位,了解哪些議題對選民最重要,以及如何調整策略以吸引更多支持。
    市場研究:企業和組織進行民調以了解消費者對產品、服務或品牌的態度,從而制定或調整市場策略。
    社會科學研究:學者和研究者使用民調來了解人們的社會、文化和心理特征,以及其與行為的關係。
    公眾與媒體的期望:民調提供了一種方式,使公眾、政府和企業得以了解社會的整體趨勢和態度。媒體也經常報導民調結果,提供公眾對當前議題的見解。
    提供反饋和評估:無論是企業還是政府,都可以透過民調了解其表現、服務或政策的效果,並根據反饋進行改進。
    預測和趨勢分析:民調可以幫助預測某些趨勢或行為的未來發展,如選舉結果、市場需求等。
    教育和提高公眾意識:通過進行和公布民調,可以促使公眾對某一議題或問題有更深入的了解和討論。

    民調可信嗎?
    民意調查的結果數據隨處可見,尤其是政治性民調結果幾乎可說是天天在新聞上放送,對總統的滿意度下降了多少百分比,然而大家又信多少?

    在景美市場的訪問中,我們了解到民眾對民調有一些普遍的觀點。大多數受訪者表示,他們對民調的可信度存有疑慮,主要原因是他們擔心政府可能會在調查中進行操控,以符合特定政治目標。

    受訪者還提到,民意調查的結果通常不會對他們的投票意願產生影響。換句話說,他們的選擇通常受到更多因素的影響,例如候選人的政策立場和政府做事的認真與否,而不是單純依賴民調結果。

    從訪問中我們可以得出的結論是,大多數民眾對民調持謹慎態度,並認為它們對他們的投票決策影響有限。

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